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Strategic Conflict Probabilities in the European Air Traffic Management Network
Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.13306
Publikationstyp
Conference Paper
Date Issued
2016-10-21
Sprache
English
TORE-DOI
Citation
65. Deutscher Luft- und Raumfahrtkongress (DLRK 2016)
Contribution to Conference
Publisher
Deutsche Gesellschaft für Luft- und Raumfahrt - Lilienthal-Oberth e.V., Bonn, 2016
The complexity of European Air Traffic is accompanied by a continuous risk of conflicts between aircraft. I particular, inaccurate forecasts of aircraft positions prevent a fail-proof prediction of conflicts, especially fo large look-ahead times. Uncertainty of departure times is one of the most important factors in trajector prediction. Therefore, we compute strategic conflict probabilities between planned trajectories with stochasti departure times. First, potentially conflicted flight pairs are geometrically identified and further interpreted to gain critical periods of time in which conflicts would materialize with a given probability. Conflict probabilities of planned trajectories of a complete daily traffic sample are calculated. Results dissect the dependency of conflict probabilities on departure time deviations and on conflict geometry. Finally, an upper bound of strategic conflict reduction by strategic time shifts is computed.
DDC Class
629: Other Branches
003: Systems Theory
518: Numerical Analysis
Publication version
publishedVersion
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DLRK2016_strategic_conflicts_420157.pdf
Type
Main Article
Size
495.95 KB
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