Krüger, StefanStefanKrügerPhilipson, TomTomPhilipsonDankowski, HendrikHendrikDankowski2026-07-302026-07-302026-07-17Ship Technology Research 73 (2): 122-131 (2026)https://hdl.handle.net/11420/64123A method is presented to determine the probability of survival of naval vessels in different scenarios of threat. The method is applicable especially during the early design phase in order to quickly assess the probability of survival of novel navy ship designs. It also makes it possible to identify and eliminate weaknesses in the design. This development follows the logic of threat-based naval ship design. The method is based on the regulations DMS 1030-1, DMS 1040-1, and DMS 0280 and demonstrates how these regulations can be used as ideal design tools in the early design phase. The method is implemented as a Monte Carlo simulation method within the E4 ship design system, and the methodological principles and their application to a sample design are explained in this article.en2056-711120262122131Taylor & Francishttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/damage stabilityinitial design phaseMonte Carlo simulationship designship safetystructural integritysurvivabilityThreat based naval ship designTechnology::623: Military Engineering and Marine Engineering::623.8: Naval Architecture; ShipbuildingJournal Article10.1080/09377255.2026.266321110.15480/882.17688