Burmeister, Hans-ChristophHans-ChristophBurmeisterDaim, TugrulTugrulDaimErnst, HorstHorstErnstHerstatt, CorneliusCorneliusHerstatt2020-04-282020-04-282016-09-01Technological Forecasting and Social Change (110): 196-212 (2016-09-01)http://hdl.handle.net/11420/5913This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.en0040-16252016196212GermanyRail automationScenariosTechnology roadmapJournal Article10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.017Other