Mostafa, MarwanMarwanMostafaBabazadeh, DavoodDavoodBabazadehBecker, ChristianChristianBecker2024-11-272024-11-272023-05-08arXiv:2305.04577 (2023)https://tore.tuhh.de/handle/11420/52143Integrating the gas and district heating with the electrical grid in a multi-energy grid has been shown to provide flexibility and prevent bottlenecks in the operation of electrical distribution grids. This integration however assumes a top-down grid planning approach and a perfect knowledge of consumer behaviour. In reality, the consumer decides whether to adopt a heating technology based on costs and government regulation. This behavior is highly uncertain and depends on fluctuations in heating technology costs and energy prices. The uncertainty associated with consumer behavior increases the risk of investment in grid expansion. In response to this challenge, this paper proposes an approach with the consumer at the center of the planning method. Robust optimization is used to model the uncertainty in prices to reduce the risk of investment in grid expansion. The uncertainty in energy prices is modeled using interval uncertainty with a proportional deviation. This allows planners, operators and regulators to predict the adoption rate of certain heating technology in different geographical areas and prioritize the expansion of specific grids where they are required. By minimizing a cost function subject to robust constraints, the strategy ensures robustness against uncertainties in energy prices. This robust optimization approach is applied to Hamburg as a case study. The result of the optimization represents the consumer's decision. The impact of the consumer's decision on the electrical grid is analzed on different benchmark distribution grids. The study concludes that district heating expansion in high-density areas is a low-risk investment for carbon neutrality. In less dense areas, electrification supports decentralized heat pumps. Meanwhile, hydrogen gas grids are viable where electric expansion is impractical. Increased uncertainty leads to more conservative solutions. The results also show that putting the consumer instead of the planner at the center of the planning method results in more critical scenarios for grid expansion. This approach can be implemented promptly and practically by grid planners and is an important component of an integrated planning process for multi-energy grids.enhttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Robust optimizationIntegrated planningMulti-energy gridsSector couplingTechnology::600: TechnologyPreprinthttps://doi.org/10.15480/882.13777https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2305.0457710.15480/882.13777arXiv:2305.04577Preprint