Grossmann, IgorIgorGrossmannRotella, AmandaAmandaRotellaHutcherson, CendriCendriHutchersonSharpinskyi, KonstantynKonstantynSharpinskyiVarnum, MichaelMichaelVarnumAchter, SebastianSebastianAchterDhami, Mandeep K.Mandeep K.DhamiGuo, Xinqi EvieXinqi EvieGuoKara-Yakoubian, ManeManeKara-YakoubianMandel, David R.David R.MandelRaes, LouisLouisRaesTay, LouisLouisTayVie, AymericAymericVieWagner, LisaLisaWagnerAdamkovic, MatusMatusAdamkovicArami, ArashArashAramiArriaga Ferreira, PatriciaPatriciaArriaga FerreiraBandara, KasunKasunBandaraBaník, GabrielGabrielBaníkBartoš, FrantišekFrantišekBartošBaskin, ErnestErnestBaskinBergmeir, ChristophChristophBergmeirBiałek, MichałMichałBiałekBørsting, Caroline KjærCaroline KjærBørstingBrowne, Dillon T.Dillon T.BrowneCaruso, Eugene M.Eugene M.CarusoChen, RongRongChenChie, Bin-TzongBin-TzongChieChopik, William J.William J.ChopikCollins, Robert N.Robert N.CollinsCong, Chin WenChin WenCongConway, Lucian G.Lucian G.ConwayDavis, MatthewMatthewDavisDay, Martin V.Martin V.DayDhaliwal, Nathan A.Nathan A.DhaliwalDurham, Justin D.Justin D.DurhamDziekan, MartynaMartynaDziekanElbaek, ChristianChristianElbaekShuman, EricEricShumanFabrykant, MarharytaMarharytaFabrykantFirat, MustafaMustafaFiratFong, Geoffrey T.Geoffrey T.FongFrimer, JeremyJeremyFrimerGallegos, Jonathan M.Jonathan M.GallegosGoldberg, Simon B.Simon B.GoldbergGollwitzer, AntonAntonGollwitzerGoyal, JuliaJuliaGoyalGraf-Vlachy, LorenzLorenzGraf-VlachyGronlund, Scott D.Scott D.GronlundHafenbrädl, SebastianSebastianHafenbrädlHartanto, AndreeAndreeHartantoHirshberg, Matthew J.Matthew J.HirshbergHornsey, MatthewMatthewHornseyHowe, Piers D.L.Piers D.L.HoweIzadi, AnooshaAnooshaIzadiJaeger, BastianBastianJaegerKačmár, PavolPavolKačmárKim, Yeun JoonYeun JoonKimKrenzler, RuslanRuslanKrenzlerLannin, DanielDanielLanninLin, Hung WenHung WenLinLou, Nigel MantouNigel MantouLouLua, Verity Y.Q.Verity Y.Q.LuaLukaszewski, Aaron W.Aaron W.LukaszewskiLy, Albert L.Albert L.LyMadan, ChristopherChristopherMadanMaier, MaximilianMaximilianMaierMajeed, Nadyanna M.Nadyanna M.MajeedMarch, David S.David S.MarchMarsh, Abigail A.Abigail A.MarshMisiak, MichalMichalMisiakMyrseth, KristianKristianMyrsethNapan, JaimeJaimeNapanNicholas, JonathanJonathanNicholasNikolopoulos, KonstantinosKonstantinosNikolopoulosO, JiaqingJiaqingOOtterbring, TobiasTobiasOtterbringParuzel-Czachura, MariolaMariolaParuzel-CzachuraPauer, ShivaShivaPauerProtzko, JohnJohnProtzkoRaffaelli, QuentinQuentinRaffaelliRopovik, IvanIvanRopovikRoss, Robert M.Robert M.RossRoth, YefimYefimRothRøysamb, EspenEspenRøysambSchnabel, LandonLandonSchnabelSchütz, AstridAstridSchützSeifert, MatthiasMatthiasSeifertSevincer, A. T.A. T.SevincerSherman, Garrick T.Garrick T.ShermanSimonsson, OttoOttoSimonssonSung, Ming ChienMing ChienSungTai, Chung ChingChung ChingTaiTalhelm, ThomasThomasTalhelmTeachman, BethanyBethanyTeachmanTetlock, PhilipPhilipTetlockThomakos, DimitriosDimitriosThomakosTse, Dwight C.K.Dwight C.K.TseTwardus, OliverOliverTwardusTybur, Joshua M.Joshua M.TyburUngar, LyleLyleUngarVandermeulen, DaanDaanVandermeulenVaughan Williams, LeightonLeightonVaughan WilliamsVosgerichian, Hrag A.Hrag A.VosgerichianWang, QiQiWangWang, KeKeWangWhiting, Mark E.Mark E.WhitingWollbrant, Conny E.Conny E.WollbrantYang, TaoTaoYangYogeeswaran, KumarKumarYogeeswaranYoon, SangsukSangsukYoonAlves, Ventura R.Ventura R.AlvesAndrews-Hanna, Jessica R.Jessica R.Andrews-HannaBloom, Paul A.Paul A.BloomBoyles, AnthonyAnthonyBoylesCharis, LooLooCharisChoi, MingyeongMingyeongChoiDarling-Hammond, SeanSeanDarling-HammondFerguson, Z. E.Z. E.FergusonKaiser, Cheryl R.Cheryl R.KaiserKarg, Simon TobiasSimon TobiasKargOrtega, Alberto LópezAlberto LópezOrtegaMahoney, LoriLoriMahoneyMarsh, MelvinMelvinMarshMartinie, Marcellin F.R.C.Marcellin F.R.C.MartinieMichaels, Eli K.Eli K.MichaelsMillroth, PhilipPhilipMillrothNaqvi, Jeanean B.Jeanean B.NaqviNg, WeitingWeitingNgRutledge, Robb B.Robb B.RutledgeSlattery, PeterPeterSlatterySmiley, Adam H.Adam H.SmileyStrijbis, OliverOliverStrijbisSznycer, DanielDanielSznycerTsukayama, EliEliTsukayamavan Loon, AustinAustinvan LoonVoelkel, Jan G.Jan G.VoelkelWienk, MargauxMargauxWienkWilkening, TomTomWilkening2023-06-092023-06-092023-02-09Nature Human Behaviour 7 (4): 484-501 (2023-02-09)http://hdl.handle.net/11420/15398How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists’ forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data.en2397-337420234484501TechnikJournal Article10.1038/s41562-022-01517-136759585Other