Assessing the safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems: A bowtie analysis approach

Journal
Accident Analysis & Prevention  
Volume
99
Issue
Part A
Start Page
125
End Page
141
Citation
Accident Analysis and Prevention (99): 125-141 (2017)
Publisher DOI
10.1016/j.aap.2016.11.014
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-84998980156
Publisher
Elsevier
The safety effects of cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS) are mostly unknown and associated with uncertainties, because these systems represent emerging technology. This study proposes a bowtie analysis as a conceptual framework for evaluating the safety effect of cooperative intelligent transport systems. These seek to prevent road traffic accidents or mitigate their consequences. Under the assumption of the potential occurrence of a particular single vehicle accident, three case studies demonstrate the application of the bowtie analysis approach in road traffic safety. The approach utilizes exemplary expert estimates and knowledge from literature on the probability of the occurrence of accident risk factors and of the success of safety measures. Fuzzy set theory is applied to handle uncertainty in expert knowledge. Based on this approach, a useful tool is developed to estimate the effects of safety-related cooperative intelligent transport systems in terms of the expected change in accident occurrence and consequence probability.
Subjects
bowtie
cooperative intelligent transport systems
safety effect assessment
fuzzy sets
DDC Class
620: Ingenieurwissenschaften