Development methods for 2030: An interpretation of the scenarios of the method application

Using the scenario analysis, context scenarios of the application of methods were derived, for the strategic orientation of development method research. The scenarios of the application of methods are interpreted in this article. For this purpose, a multi-level concept was developed, in which in a first step an expert study with alumni and employees of the IPEK -Institute of Product Engineering of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) was carried out with 32 participants. The participants of the study were presented with concise short videos that illustrate the application of development methods in the respective scenario. The respondents' task was to evaluate the scenarios with regard to the actual situation, desired image and probability of occurrence as well as to identify the opportunities, risks and relevant research priorities of the scenarios. The results of the studies were then consolidated step-by-step in the expert team into a total of seven research clusters and linked with a network analysis. After a brief description of the scenarios of the application of methods, these are discussed in the results of this article with the aim of addressing specific short, medium and long-term research incentives