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Modeling eelgrass spatial response to nutrient abatement measures in a changing climate
Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.3240
Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2021
Sprache
English
Institut
TORE-DOI
TORE-URI
Journal
Volume
50
Issue
2
Start Page
400
End Page
412
Citation
Ambio 2 (50): 400-412 (2021-02)
Publisher DOI
Scopus ID
For many coastal areas including the Baltic Sea, ambitious nutrient abatement goals have been set to curb eutrophication, but benefits of such measures were normally not studied in light of anticipated climate change. To project the likely responses of nutrient abatement on eelgrass (Zostera marina), we coupled a species distribution model with a biogeochemical model, obtaining future water turbidity, and a wave model for predicting the future hydrodynamics in the coastal area. Using this, eelgrass distribution was modeled for different combinations of nutrient scenarios and future wind fields. We are the first to demonstrate that while under a business as usual scenario overall eelgrass area will not recover, nutrient reductions that fulfill the Helsinki Commission’s Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) are likely to lead to a substantial areal expansion of eelgrass coverage, primarily at the current distribution’s lower depth limits, thereby overcompensating losses in shallow areas caused by a stormier climate.
Subjects
Baltic Sea Action Plan
Climate change
Eutrophication
Scenario modeling
Species distribution model
Zostera marina
DDC Class
600: Technik
More Funding Information
DEAL. This research was funded by the State Agency for Agriculture, Environment and Rural Areas Schleswig-Holstein (LLUR). The LLUR (Hans Christian Reimers) and Agency for Coastal Defence, National Park and Marine Conservation (Lutz Christiansen) kindly provided the bathymetry data for the German Baltic Sea.
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