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Versagensmechanismen und Versagenswahrscheinlichkeiten von Hochwasserschutzdünen
Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2017
Sprache
German
Author(s)
Institut
TORE-URI
Volume
85
Start Page
117
End Page
141
Citation
In: Die Küste (85) Karlsruhe, 2017
Scopus ID
or the risk-based analysis of the dune erosion two different dune erosion models were chosen from the large variety of available dune erosion models. The chosen dune erosion models are used as a basis for the calculation of the failure probability and the derivation of the fragility curves. On the one hand, the semi-empirical dune erosion model of Van Gent et al. (2008) was chosen and, on the other hand, the more complex process-based numerical model XBeach. On the basis of both dune erosion models the required input data have been derived. An initialprofile of the foodprotection dune was derived on the basis of the Regelwerk Küstenschutz des Landes Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. The hydrodynamic input data have been derived using bivariate statistic models. Since the calculations should be probabilistic, joint probabilities of occurrence are assigned to the required input data. On the basis of the chosen dune erosion models and the derived input data, failure probabilitiesfor the floodprotection dune for different storm events with different return periods have been calculated using the concept of reliability analysis. Failure functions depending on the structure parameters and fragility curves as a function of the hydrodynamic loads have been created using the concept. Using both dune erosion models, fragility curves were derived for storm surge events of different return periods. The both dune erosion models lead to different results. One reason can be seen in the different description of the physical processes in both models. The dune erosion model of Van Gent et al. (2008) is an empirical model considering the wave height, wave period and the sinking velocity of the sediment. The storm surge water level is considered indirectly and the storm duration is neglected. The physicalprocesses relevant for the dune erosion are described in greater detail in the numerical model XBeach. In addition to the above-mentioned parameters, here, the storm surge water level and the duration of the storm event are taken into account