The future of rail automation: A scenario-based technology roadmap for the rail automation market

Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2016-09-01
Sprache
English
Author(s)
Burmeister, Hans-Christoph 
Daim, Tugrul  
Ernst, Horst  
Herstatt, Cornelius  
Institut
Technologie- und Innovationsmanagement W-7  
TORE-URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11420/5913
Journal
Technological forecasting and social change  
Volume
110
Start Page
196
End Page
212
Citation
Technological Forecasting and Social Change (110): 196-212 (2016-09-01)
Publisher DOI
10.1016/j.techfore.2015.12.017
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-84954305975
This paper proposes a four-step approach based on technology roadmapping and scenario-based roadmapping. The objective is to evaluate the relevance of new products and technologies and its variation under a range of possible future conditions or scenarios. A case study on rail automation for passenger transport systems is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method. Market drivers, new systems, products and technologies are identified in a literature review and then verified and linked by expert judgments. Analyzing the resulting graphical representation of relevance and robustness from the proposed approach leads to a periodization of products and technologies for future development and an evaluation of the most influential market driver. The proposed approach for scenario-based technology roadmapping facilitates robust decision making under future uncertainties.
Subjects
Germany
Rail automation
Scenarios
Technology roadmap