Assessment of changes of extreme wave conditions at the German Baltic Sea coast on the basis of future climate change scenarios

Journal
Journal of marine science and technology  
Volume
23
Issue
6
Start Page
839
End Page
845
Citation
Journal of Marine Science and Technology (Taiwan) 23 (6): 839-845 (2015)
Publisher DOI
10.6119/JMST-015-0609-3
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-84995444630
Publisher
Ching-Fong Chang, National Taiwan Ocean University
Information on possible changes in extreme wave heights is needed to determine the future effectiveness and safety of coastal and flood protection structures. In this study, an assessment of possible changes in the extreme wave heights at selected locations along the German Baltic Sea coast has been carried out on the basis of numerical simulations of waves in the western Baltic Sea and regional climate model data for the past and the future (1961-2100). The future climate change signal of significant wave heights with a return period of 200 years mainly depends on: (i) the location, (ii) the climate change scenario run, (iii) the time period of the comparison, and (iv) the approach adopted to calculate the wave climate. The results show increases of up to +0.5 m and decreases of up to -0.5 m of the extreme wave heights. The increases might have considerable effect on the constructional design of coastal and flood protection structures - such as breakwaters, sea dykes, and vertical walls - because the extreme wave heights are used as input parameters for the design of the structures.
Subjects
Baltic Sea
Cosmo-CLM
Extreme wave conditions
Regional climate change
SWAN wave model
DDC Class
500: Naturwissenschaften
530: Physik
550: Geowissenschaften
600: Technik
620: Ingenieurwissenschaften