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Klimawandelbedingte Veränderungen des örtlichen Seegangs und Auswirkungen auf die Belastungen von Küstenschutzbauwerken
Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.14549
Publikationstyp
Doctoral Thesis
Date Issued
2025
Sprache
German
Author(s)
Advisor
Referee
Title Granting Institution
Technische Universität Hamburg
Place of Title Granting Institution
Hamburg
Examination Date
2024-12-02
Institute
TORE-DOI
First published in
Number in series
29
Volume
29
Citation
Hamburger Wasserbau-Schriften 29: (2025)
Publisher
Institut für Wasserbau
Peer Reviewed
false
For the further development and optimization of concepts and methods for climate change adaptation in coastal protection, information on possible changes of hydrodynamic input variables, in particular local water levels and local waves, is needed, since these are among the most important input variables for the planning and design of coastal protection structures.
The work contributes to this by developing and applying a methodology, based on different ensembles of regional climate projections, for the spatial and temporal quantification of possible long-term climate change-induced changes of local wave conditions along the German Baltic Sea coast for average conditions and extreme events, as well as for the estimation of the ensemble bandwidth (uncertainty) of selected climate scenarios in combination with analyses of the statistical significance of the changes.
In addition, the effects of sea level rise and changes in local wave conditions due to climate change on the resulting structural loads were analyzed and evaluated using scenarios and typical coastal protection structures.
The work is based on innovative methods such as (i) the use of ensembles of regional climate projections with high spatial and temporal resolution for the extended analysis and assessment of climate change induced changes of local wave conditions and (ii) the development and application of a hybrid method for sea state calculation, which is currently the only one that allows long-term calculations and the uncertainty assessment based on climate projection ensembles.
The developed methodology has been used to calculate the local sea state in the area of the southwestern Baltic Sea as an application case, but can in principle also be applied to other semi-enclosed regional inland seas, where the sea state is mainly influenced by the local wind field and only to a small extent by swell effects and not by strong currents.
For example, for the climate projection ensembles and mean conditions considered, statistically significant increases in wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period, as well as changes in mean wind and wave directions toward more westerly directions, were observed predominantly at sites exposed to westerly winds. In contrast, no clear (consistent) signal or uniform trend was found for extreme events. Overall, the changes are characterized by high spatial, interannual and seasonal variability, and represent a subset of the full range of possible future changes in local sea state.
It was also shown that without adaptation of the structures and in the case of unfavorable morphological development due to sea level rise and climate change induced changes in the wave boundary conditions, both the local wave conditions and the wave induced loads on the structures as well as possible damage will increase and the functional effectiveness and structural safety will decrease.
The work contributes to this by developing and applying a methodology, based on different ensembles of regional climate projections, for the spatial and temporal quantification of possible long-term climate change-induced changes of local wave conditions along the German Baltic Sea coast for average conditions and extreme events, as well as for the estimation of the ensemble bandwidth (uncertainty) of selected climate scenarios in combination with analyses of the statistical significance of the changes.
In addition, the effects of sea level rise and changes in local wave conditions due to climate change on the resulting structural loads were analyzed and evaluated using scenarios and typical coastal protection structures.
The work is based on innovative methods such as (i) the use of ensembles of regional climate projections with high spatial and temporal resolution for the extended analysis and assessment of climate change induced changes of local wave conditions and (ii) the development and application of a hybrid method for sea state calculation, which is currently the only one that allows long-term calculations and the uncertainty assessment based on climate projection ensembles.
The developed methodology has been used to calculate the local sea state in the area of the southwestern Baltic Sea as an application case, but can in principle also be applied to other semi-enclosed regional inland seas, where the sea state is mainly influenced by the local wind field and only to a small extent by swell effects and not by strong currents.
For example, for the climate projection ensembles and mean conditions considered, statistically significant increases in wind speed, significant wave height and mean wave period, as well as changes in mean wind and wave directions toward more westerly directions, were observed predominantly at sites exposed to westerly winds. In contrast, no clear (consistent) signal or uniform trend was found for extreme events. Overall, the changes are characterized by high spatial, interannual and seasonal variability, and represent a subset of the full range of possible future changes in local sea state.
It was also shown that without adaptation of the structures and in the case of unfavorable morphological development due to sea level rise and climate change induced changes in the wave boundary conditions, both the local wave conditions and the wave induced loads on the structures as well as possible damage will increase and the functional effectiveness and structural safety will decrease.
Subjects
Climate change scenarios | high resolution regional climate projections | wind waves | wave induced loads | coastal protection structures | dune erosion
DDC Class
551: Geology, Hydrology Meteorology
627: Hydraulic Engineering
620.1: Engineering Mechanics and Materials Science
Funding(s)
Regionale Anpassungsstrategien für die deutsche Ostseeküste (RAdOst)
Preparing for Extreme and Rare Events in Coastal Regions (PEARL)
Untersuchung der Bandbreiten simulierter Auswirkungen von Klimaänderungen bei der Verwendung von Ensemble Klimasimulationen in hydrologischen Modellen (Bandbreiten)
Morphologische Projektionen für die Ostseeküste Schleswig-Holsteins
Funding Organisations
Federal Ministry of Education and Research
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