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Analyse und Bewertung multivariater hydrodynamischer Belastungsgrößen für die deutsche Nord- und Ostseeküste
Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2017
Sprache
German
Author(s)
Institut
TORE-URI
The definition of input parameters for a risk analysis requires detailed information on the hydrodynamic conditions in each study area, including water level progressions over time (storm surge hydrographs) a^d the prevailing sea state conditions as well as corresponding probabilities of occurrence. In order to create storm surge hydrographs, water level time series at different North Sea and Baltic Sea locations were evaluated. Annual peak water levels and fullnesses of storm surges/ wind set-up were statistically classified using extreme value distributions as well as copula models. To generate random storm surge/ wind set-up hydrographs with a given probability of occurrence, in a first step a function was derived that is able to simulate different water level progressions on the interval (0,1). Thereby an arbitrary number of dimensionless storm surge hydrograph shapes were gained. All dimensionless hydrograph shapes were scaled using random pairs of water levels and fullnesses with a given probability. The expected sea state conditions have been determined usingjoint probabilities of maximum peak water levels and corresponding high wave heights. The methods developed for the generation of storm surge hydrographs were implemented in a software to automatically generate storm surges.