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Dismissing return periods!
Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2015-05-01
Sprache
English
Author(s)
Serinaldi, Francesco
Volume
29
Issue
4
Start Page
1179
End Page
1189
Citation
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 29 (4): 1179-1189 (2015)
Publisher DOI
Scopus ID
Publisher
Springer
The concept of return period in stationary univariate frequency analysis is prone to misconceptions and misuses that are well known but still widespread. In this study we highlight how nonstationary and multivariate extensions of such a concept are affected by additional misconceptions, thus easily resulting in further ill-posed procedures and misleading conclusions. We also show that the concepts of probability of exceedance and risk of failure over a given design life period provide more coherent, general and well devised tools for risk assessment and communication.
Subjects
Copulas
Design life
Design values
Multivariate frequency analysis
Nonstationary frequency analysis
Return period
Risk of failure
DDC Class
620: Engineering