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Production portfolio theory : risk evaluation and a new Industrial application (IA)
Publikationstyp
Conference Paper
Date Issued
2024
Sprache
English
Author(s)
First published in
Number in series
919 LNNS
Start Page
642
End Page
655
Citation
Future of Information and Communication Conference, FICC 2024
Contribution to Conference
Publisher DOI
Scopus ID
Publisher
Springer Nature Switzerland
ISBN
978-3-031-53959-6
978-3-031-53960-2
978-3-031-53961-9
The world is shifting slowly towards bigger structures, institutions and rules, which could also be named as a societal gravitational field, not just as an analogy. This can be defined as the sum of movements in society concerning finally material processes, which is triggered in modern society by increasing functionalities. One key part of this process is managing future expectations by data analysis and statistical tools, which then leads in industrial and business environments to growth triggered by ‘right’ investments, which means in the sustainability age by sustainable measures. We introduce in this work for the first time an Industrial Application (IA) example that demonstrates and gives the transition path from the recently developed production portfolio theory from Heiden/Markowitz and how to use it in an industrial environment for investment into a sustainable transformation using statistical forecasting tools. The approach introduces the transition strategy of defining investors’ choices characteristics like optimistic, pessimistic or neutral concerning future expectation judgement and risk. This leads in the statistical production portfolio theory framework to economic value and risk landscapes that help judge future investments better. The essential improvement of this method is by using the basic economical method of dynamical investment, the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, and expanding it alongside the economic value dimension with the risk of economic value, which can be regarded as a higher order momentum of the first one, and by this and the portfolio approach as parabolic or quadratic in the solution space of these two dimensions.
Subjects
Assistive technologies
Clustering and classification
Economic analysis
Industrial application (IA)
Industrial IoT
Probability analysis
Production portfolio theory
Production technology
Statistical analysis
DDC Class
330: Economics