LNG commercial aircraft market size estimation and CO<inf>2</inf> emissions growth implications

This paper describes potential market size, required eco system elements, and limiting factors and implications to carbon neutral growth for the adoption for liquid natural gas (LNG) powered commercial aircraft between 2025 and 2050. Natural gas possess unique potential to reduce emissions in commercial aviation because it because of has both a lower cost and lower carbon footprint than Jet-A and would not require continuous economic subsides. A number of limitations The market share of LNG aircraft during this time period depends on a number of factors but will likely be limited by the: demand for new aircraft, the price advantage of LNG, the scaling constraints of initial implementation, and the ability and willingness of the finance industry to fund the purchase of aircraft before there is a complete global saturation of small and large scale LNG airport infrastructure. These initial estimates show there is a potential market for 28,500 LNG commercial aircraft between 2025 and 2050. Of these, a maximum of 2,880 aircraft can be built between 2025 and 2035 because they are compatible with small-scale infrastructure and fall within likely market share and production levels. However, none of the likely technology scenarios mixed with LNG achieve carbon neutral growth before 2050.

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LNG commercial aircraft market size estimation and CO<inf>2</inf> emissions growth implications