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Three-dimensional copula framework for early warning of agricultural droughts using meteorological drought and vegetation health conditions
Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.9576
Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2024-04-10
Sprache
English
TORE-DOI
Journal
Volume
69
Issue
5
Start Page
592
End Page
606
Citation
Hydrological Sciences Journal 69 (5): 592-606 (2024)
Publisher DOI
Scopus ID
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
This study develops an early warning system for crop yield (CY) failure based on meteorological drought and vegetation health conditions. The framework combines three drought indices–the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), standardized Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (stdNDVI), and standardized CY (stdCY) values–using copulas. Datasets for five major wheat-producing cities in Turkey between 2000 and 2022 are used for analysis. Results indicate that the time periods used to calculate SPEI and NDVI are critical in determining agricultural drought and CY conditions. The critical threshold values for SPEI and NDVI, with a 10% probability of causing agricultural drought, are found to be ~0.28 and ~0.42, respectively. Using a three-dimensional copula model resulted in more precise CY simulations than a two-dimensional model. The validation efforts showed that all of the observed CYs fell within the simulated range, indicating the robustness of the methodology in capturing drought impacts on CY conditions.
Subjects
copula
crop yield
Drought
NDVI
SPEI
vegetation health
DDC Class
550: Earth Sciences, Geology
Publication version
publishedVersion
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Name
Three-dimensional copula framework for early warning of agricultural droughts using meteorological drought and vegetation health conditions.pdf
Type
Main Article
Size
7.35 MB
Format
Adobe PDF