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  4. Hydrological impacts of climate change on flood probability in small urban catchments and possibilities of flood risk mitigation
 
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Hydrological impacts of climate change on flood probability in small urban catchments and possibilities of flood risk mitigation

Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.1694
Publikationstyp
Master Thesis
Date Issued
2010
Sprache
English
Author(s)
Hellmers, Sandra  orcid-logo
Advisor
Pasche, Erik  
Title Granting Institution
Technische Universität Hamburg
Place of Title Granting Institution
Hamburg
Examination Date
2010-04
Institut
Wasserbau B-10  
TORE-DOI
10.15480/882.1694
TORE-URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11420/1697
First published in
Hamburger Wasserbau-Schriften  
Number in series
13
Impacts of climate change on the ecology, the human and the economy are already apparent and probably increase significantly in future. The magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall is thereby assumed to change, which could affect the flood regime in river catchments substantially. Especially flooding in small urban catchments (SUCAs) is strongly dependent on intensive rainfall events which cause exceeding flow from small rivers, streams and storm water sewer systems.
Developing a detailed and comprehensive methodology to quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change on flood probability in SUCAs is a required and forward-looking task, which has been worked out and described in this thesis.
To cope with the impacts on flood risk in SUCAs, it is emergent to introduce and implement effective, flexible as well as adaptable possibilities of flood probability reduction, whereas sustainable drainage systems (SUDSs) have been identified as
appropriate measures. To assess the effectiveness of these techniques, a software tool for simulating SUDS elements (namely: green roofs) on a catchment level has been programmed.
The developed methodology in this thesis comprises the pre-processing of climate model as well as climate scenario data series, the processing of climate scenario results, the post-processing of calculated climate change impacts including the computation of climate change factors and the assessment of the effectiveness of SUDSs in post-impact studies.
This methodology has been applied for climate change impact studies in one of the catchments in the region of the KLIMZUG-Nord project. An increase of the frequency and magnitude of extreme events has been calculated especially for summer periods, whereas for winter periods the average precipitation is computed
to increase significantly. With the IPCC scenario A1B, in the climate period from 2040 to 2070, an increase of 13.3% for 100year summer rainfall intensities with durations of 1hour, as well as an increase of 22.5% for 100year peak discharges in summer periods has been calculated. Additionally, simulations for the IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 have been performed, but the results display lower changes in extreme events for the time period around 2050. The new developed software tool for simulating green roofs has been tested in adaptation scenario studies, along with the simulation of swales and swale-filter-drain systems. The appropriateness of the simulation results of hydrological
processes in each SUDS element and the effectiveness of SUDSs on a catchment level has been verified. The compensation of climate change impacts on the flood probability in SUCAs has been achieved with the combination of different SUDS measures, which display larger effectiveness for events with higher probabilities of
occurrence.
Subjects
hydrology
SUDS
flood mitigation
urban drainage
climate change impacts
DDC Class
620: Ingenieurwissenschaften
Lizenz
http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
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