Inflation expectations and cognitive uncertainty

Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2026-02-12
Sprache
English
Author(s)
Beckmann, Joscha  
Brunne, Jennifer  
Heinrich, Timo  orcid-logo
Digital Economics W-5  
TORE-DOI
10.15480/882.16719
TORE-URI
https://hdl.handle.net/11420/61562
Journal
Journal of economic behavior & organization  
Volume
244
Article Number
107437
Citation
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 244: 107437 (2026)
Publisher DOI
10.1016/j.jebo.2026.107437
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105029628865
Publisher
Elsevier
Peer Reviewed
true
This paper provides a new perspective on the formation of inflation expectations based on a sample of 1036 US residents. In our information provision experiment, the participants were provided with professional forecasts of different historical accuracy and complexity. Our novel experimental design allows us to assess the influence of cognitive uncertainty while controlling for the uncertainty associated with forecasts and priors. Consistent with cognitive uncertainty we find that more complex forecasts lead to smaller updates of inflation expectation.
Subjects
Cognitive uncertainty
Expectation formation
Inflation
Information provision experiment
DDC Class
330: Economics
519: Applied Mathematics, Probabilities
Lizenz
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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