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Prä-operationelle Vorhersage von Seegang und Wellenauflauf an Seedeichen in der deutschen Bucht
Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.4459
Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2021
Sprache
German
Author(s)
Institut
TORE-DOI
Journal
Volume
90
Start Page
51
End Page
78
Citation
Die Küste 90 (): 51-78 (2021)
Publisher DOI
Scopus ID
Publisher
Bundesanst. für Wasserbau
Peer Reviewed
true
Today’s available flood- respectively storm surge warning systems for the German North Sea coast consist
exclusively of water level forecasts. Other hydrodynamic loads caused by wind waves and local currents as
well as the resistance of the flood protection structure itself (e. g. coastal dikes, flood protection walls etc.) are
not taken into account. Therefore, a prototype for an operational now- and forecast system (in the following called pre-operational forecast system) for waves and wave induced hydrodynamic loads is set up that consists
of available field measurements and data from numerical wave simulations in the German Bight. A hybrid
model approach is used for the forecast of hydrodynamic loads on sea dikes. The approach combines numerical
results from the phase integrated spectral wave forecast model (SWAN) and empirical approaches
(e. g. EurOtop) as well as field measurements for the now- and forecast of average wave run-up heights at
a sea dike on the North Frisian Island of Pellworm. The operational system is demonstrated exemplarily
for the forecast of selected storm surges during the past decade (e. g. “XAVER”, 5-6th December 2013)
and the forecast quality is assessed on the basis of available field measurements. The RMSE (root mean
square error) of the average wave run-up heights (Ru2%) at the dike ranges between 3 % and 7 %
(0,16−0,34 m) and corresponds to the uncertainty of the calculated average wave run-up heights based on
measured local wave parameters.
exclusively of water level forecasts. Other hydrodynamic loads caused by wind waves and local currents as
well as the resistance of the flood protection structure itself (e. g. coastal dikes, flood protection walls etc.) are
not taken into account. Therefore, a prototype for an operational now- and forecast system (in the following called pre-operational forecast system) for waves and wave induced hydrodynamic loads is set up that consists
of available field measurements and data from numerical wave simulations in the German Bight. A hybrid
model approach is used for the forecast of hydrodynamic loads on sea dikes. The approach combines numerical
results from the phase integrated spectral wave forecast model (SWAN) and empirical approaches
(e. g. EurOtop) as well as field measurements for the now- and forecast of average wave run-up heights at
a sea dike on the North Frisian Island of Pellworm. The operational system is demonstrated exemplarily
for the forecast of selected storm surges during the past decade (e. g. “XAVER”, 5-6th December 2013)
and the forecast quality is assessed on the basis of available field measurements. The RMSE (root mean
square error) of the average wave run-up heights (Ru2%) at the dike ranges between 3 % and 7 %
(0,16−0,34 m) and corresponds to the uncertainty of the calculated average wave run-up heights based on
measured local wave parameters.
Subjects
Deutsche Bucht
Nordsee
Frühwarnsystem
operationelle Seegangsvorhersage
Wellenbelastung
ICON-EU
BSHcmod
Wellenauflauf
EurOtop Ansatz
German Bight
North Sea
early-warning system
operational wave forecast
hydrodynamic loads
wave run-up
DDC Class
530: Physik
550: Geowissenschaften
600: Technik
620: Ingenieurwissenschaften
710: Landschaftsgestaltung, Raumplanung
Funding Organisations
More Funding Information
Dank gilt dem Projektträger Jülich (PTJ) sowie dem BMBF für die Förderung und Unterstützung der Forschung.
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