Assessment and optimization of the robustness of construction schedules

Construction schedules are known to be unreliable. Deadlines are passed, because a schedule's input data, which is usually not exactly known in the planning phase, is considered deterministic when generating the schedule. This paper discusses the effects of uncertainties inherent in input data of construction schedules. It further discusses models that take into account these uncertainties and presents a method for optimizing the robustness of construction schedules by identifying the most robust combination of alternative processes. In this study, uncertainties are considered by describing the process durations with distribution functions instead of discrete values. The project makespan, based on stochastic process durations, is determined with a Monte Carlo simulation. To assess the robustness, a criterion is defined, which relates the makespan considering uncertainties to the makespan assuming deterministic process durations. With an adapted genetic optimization algorithm, the most robust combination of alternative processes is determined. A case study shows the effectiveness of the method.

Subjects

Construction scheduling

Optimization

Robustness

Uncertainties

DDC Class

000: Allgemeines, Wissenschaft

Options

Assessment and optimization of the robustness of construction schedules