Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation

Long-range dependence (LRD), the so-called Hurst–Kolmogorov behaviour, is considered to be an intrinsic characteristic of most natural processes. This behaviour manifests itself by the prevalence of slowly decaying autocorrelation function and questions the Markov assumption, often habitually employed in time series analysis. Herein, we investigate the dependence structure of annual rainfall using a large set, comprising more than a thousand stations worldwide of length 100 years or more, as well as a smaller number of paleoclimatic reconstructions covering the last 12,000 years. Our findings suggest weak long-term persistence for instrumental data (average H = 0.59), which becomes stronger with scale, i.e. in the paleoclimatic reconstructions (average H = 0.75).

Subjects

Hurst behaviour

Long-range dependence

Long-term persistence

Precipitation reconstructions

Proxy records

Rainfall variability

DDC Class

551: Geology, Hydrology Meteorology

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Revisiting long-range dependence in annual precipitation