Mitigation of aviation’s climate impact through robust climate optimized trajectories in intra-european airspace

Abstract

Aircraft trajectories are currently flown and optimized to reduce operating costs, keeping engine CO2-emissions from burnt fuel at a minimum by following fuel optimized routes under consideration of wind. However, research has shown that the location and time of non-CO2 emissions such as NOx, water vapor or the formation of contrail cirrus contribute to about two thirds of aviation’s induced climate impact [1]. Consequently, one option to reduce this impact on a short time horizon is operational measures that aim to optimize aircraft trajectories with regard to climate impact by avoiding atmospheric regions that are especially sensitive to non-CO2 emissions from aviation. For this purpose, the effects of individual emission species need to be quantified in order to assess the mitigation potential by climate-optimized routing. For this reason, multi-dimensional algorithmic climate change functions, which allow for the quantification of the climate impact of emissions, based on meteorological parameters which a e available from weather forecast data is used. These algorithmic climate change functions are integrated into the cost functional of a trajectory planning algorithm which is based on an optimal control approach and applied in order to estimate climate optimized aircraft trajectories trading climate impact reduction against cost increase. Since the climate impact and therefore the algorithmic climate change functions are highly dependent on the prevailing atmospheric conditions, particularly the formation of contrail cirrus, weather prediction uncertainties are considered in order to determine robust eco efficient trajectories. Within this study, the methodology and optimization applied to determine such a robust solution are presented and results are analyzed for an exemplary intra-European flight route.