Typical pitfalls of simulation modeling : lessons learned from armed forces and business

Abstract

This paper identifies possible pitfalls of simulation modeling and suggests ways to prevent them. First, we specify five typical pitfalls that are associated with the process of applying simulation models and characterize the "logic of failure" (Dörner 1996) behind the pitfalls. Then, we illustrate important aspects of these pitfalls using examples from applying simulation modeling to military and managerial decision making and present possible solutions to them. Finally, we discuss how our suggestions for avoiding them relate to current methodological discussions found in the social simulation community.