Publisher DOI: 10.2166/wst.2018.079
Title: Ensembles of radar nowcasts and COSMO-DE-EPS for urban flood management
Language: English
Authors: Jasper-Tönnies, Alrun 
Hellmers, Sandra  
Einfalt, Thomas 
Strehz, Alexander 
Fröhle, Peter 
Issue Date: 2018
Source: Water Science and Technology 1 (2017): 27-35 (2018)
Abstract (english): 
Sophisticated strategies are required for flood warning in urban areas regarding convective heavy rainfall events. An approach is presented to improve short-term precipitation forecasts by combining ensembles of radar nowcasts with the high-resolution numerical weather predictions COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service. The combined ensemble forecasts are evaluated and compared to deterministic precipitation forecasts of COSMO-DE. The results show a significantly improved quality of the short-term precipitation forecasts and great potential to improve flood warnings for urban catchments. The combined ensemble forecasts are produced operationally every 5 min. Applications involve the Flood Warning Service Hamburg (WaBiHa) and real-time hydrological simulations with the model Kalypso Hydrology.
ISSN: 0273-1223
Journal: Water science and technology 
Institute: Wasserbau B-10 
Document Type: Article
Project: ReWaM - Verbundprojekt StucK: Sicherstellung der Entwässerung küstennaher urbaner Räume unter Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels, Teilprojekt 3 
More Funding information: StucK (2015–2018; is a joint project in the funding measure ‘Regional Water Resources Management for Sustainable Protection of Waters in Germany’ (ReWaM) sponsored by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF).
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