Soil degradation in Europe is projected to accelerate under changing land use and climate
Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.18781
Publikationstyp
Journal Article
Date Issued
2026-04-04
Sprache
English
TORE-DOI
Volume
1
Issue
1
Article Number
56
Citation
Communications Sustainability 1 (1): 56 (2026)
Publisher DOI
Publisher
Springer
Soil degradation threatens food security and environmental sustainability, yet future projections of it are rare. Using projections from 18 global climate models under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and land-use projections from the Land Use and Climate Across Scales Land Use Change (LUCAS LUC) dataset, we assess future soil vulnerability to degradation by linking a Soil Degradation Proxy (SDP) to climate, land-use, soil characteristics, and socio-economic factors at 7433 observation sites across Europe. We project that by 2071–2100, ~59% of sites may become more vulnerable under the high-emission scenario. Cold forest regions in northern Europe are projected to face increased degradation pressure by ~+0.04SDP. However, some European croplands may improve locally through conversion to secondary lands, reduced human pressures, and natural recovery processes. These regionally specific trends highlight that, while soil degradation remains a major threat, proactive land management can mitigate soil vulnerability under future climate trajectories.
DDC Class
630: Agriculture and Related Technologies
551: Geology, Hydrology Meteorology
Publication version
publishedVersion