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Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Attributing heavy rainfall event in Berchtesgadener Land to recent climate change – further rainfall intensification projected for the futureOn 17 July 2021, storm “Bernd” hit the alpine region of Berchtesgadener Land inducing short-duration heavy rainfall, which triggered flash floods, debris flows, landslides, and flooding. Based on the observed precipitation data and an analysis of the runoff measurements, the driver of the event is defined as a 3-h rainfall. The 50-member single model initial-condition large ensemble of the Canadian Regional Climate Model version 5 under the emission scenario RCP 8.5 is employed to explore the occurrence probability of the event under historic, current, and future climate conditions. For the rainfall event, a return period of 21 years (17–25 years) is found for the current climate (2006-2035). Under historic climate (1970-1999) the event is estimated to be 3.1 (1.9–5.2) times less likely equalling a return period of 64 years (48–90 years). This is particularly critical as experience and observational data from the recent past have been crucial to the design of infrastructure and still influence current planning. For future climate conditions, the event probability is projected to increase resulting in return periods of 7.8 years (7.1–8.8 years; 2040-2069) and 4.9 years (4.6–5.4 years; 2070-2099), respectively. The future shifts in extreme precipitation must be urgently taken into account for appropriate adaptation measures.Publicationtype: Journal Article10 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Climate change effects on hydrometeorological compound events over southern Norway(Elsevier, 2020-03-18); ; ; ; Hydrometeorological compound events cause severe economical, societal and environmental damage, but their investigation is difficult as they occur rarely and are multivariate. Here we use 50 high-resolution climate simulations from the single model initial condition large ensemble CRCM5-LE to examine two such compound event types in southern Norway: (1) Heavy rainfall on saturated soil during the summer months (June, July, August, September; SES) and (2) Concurrent heavy rainfall and snowmelt (rain-on-snow; ROS). We compare present-day conditions (1980–2009) with future conditions under a high-emission scenario (2070–2099) and investigate the impact of climate change on the frequency and spatial distribution of SES and ROS events. We find that the probability of occurrence of SES events during the summer increases by 38% until 2070–2099 over the whole study area. The areas with the highest occurrence probability extend from the west coast into the interior. In contrast, the frequency of ROS is projected to decrease by 48% on average, largely driven by decreases in snowfall. Moreover, the spatial pattern of ROS are projected to change, with the most frequently affected areas shifting from the west coast towards the inner country. Our study highlights the benefits of single model large ensemble simulations for the analysis of compound events.Publicationtype: Journal Article4