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Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , A blueprint for coupling a hydrological model with fine- and coarse-scale atmospheric regional climate change models for probabilistic streamflow projections(2024-12); ; ; In cold regions, climate change, including warming and changes in snowmelt dynamics, have profound impacts on streamflow patterns, often leading to flooding events. Understanding the projected changes in hydrometeorological factors contributing to streamflow, such as snowmelt runoff and rain-on-snowmelt, is crucial for effective adaptation and mitigation strategies. It is also essential to consider uncertainty in streamflow projections and incorporate this uncertainty into flood predictions. This study presents a blueprint for calculating probabilistic future streamflow and flow duration curves in a mountainous cold region. The methodology integrated forcings from an atmospheric model (WRF) with a hydrological model (MESH) at fine spatial (4 km) and temporal (3-hourly) resolutions. To account for uncertainty, an ensemble of 15 CanRCM4 regional climate simulations with varying boundary conditions for the RCP 8.5 scenario was utilized. A novel method was developed to perturb the CanRCM4 simulations’ precipitation using a WRF Pseudo Global Warming run to incorporate uncertainty. This comprehensive approach revealed significant uncertainty in streamflow driven by internal variability. WRF-driven simulations without uncertainty showed a decrease in future streamflow extremes, while the perturbed simulations demonstrated the potential for substantially higher values under climate change. Moreover, the study derived probabilistic flow duration curves from the streamflow projections, aiding in estimating flood frequency for floodplain mapping when driving local hydraulic models. The methodology developed in this work can be extended to other river basins in Canada and elsewhere where gridded downscaled climate model outputs are available.Publicationtype: Journal Article11 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Quantifying the effects of Prairie depressional storage complexes on drainage basin connectivityRunoff in many locations within the Canadian Prairies is dominated by intermittent fill-and-spill between depressions. As a result, many basins have varying fractions of their areas connected to their outlets, due to changing depressional storage. The objective of this research is to determine the causes of the relationships between water storage and the connected fraction of depression-dominated Prairie basins. It is hypothesized that the shapes of the relationship curves are influenced by both the spatial and frequency distributions of depressional storage. Three sets of numerical experiments are presented to test the hypothesis. The first set of experiments demonstrates that where the number of depressions is small, their size and spatial distributions are important in controlling the relationship between the volume of depressional storage and the connected fraction of a basin. As the number of depressions is increased, the areal fractions of the largest depressions decrease, which reduces the importance of the spatial distribution of depressions. The second set of experiments demonstrates that the curve enveloping the connected fraction of a basin can be derived from the frequency distribution of depression areas, and scaling relationships between the area, volume and catchment area of the depressions, when the area of the largest depression is no greater than approximately 5% of the total. The third set of experiments demonstrates that the presence of a single large depression can strongly influence the relationship between the depressional storage and the connected fraction of a basin, depending on the relative size of the large depression, and its location within the basin. A single depression containing 30% of the total depressional area located near the outlet was shown to cause a basin to be nearly endorheic. A similar depression near the top of a basin was demonstrated not to fill and was therefore unable to contribute flows. The implications of the findings for developing hydrological models of large Prairie drainage basins are discussed.Publicationtype: Journal Article2