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Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , A method for estimation of equivalent-volume ice thickness based on WMO egg code in absence of ridging parameters(2018-11); ; ; When calculating equivalent-volume ice thickness along a vessel's projected route for the purpose of ice resistance estimation, information on both undeformed ice (level ice) and deformed ice (mainly ridges) is needed. Level ice information can be obtained from egg code-based ice charts in form of World Meteorological Organization (WMO) ice thickness ranges. Ridging parameters are sometimes available in ice charts as a supplement to the egg code, but are often missing, especially for the areas in the Arctic, in which case area- and season-specific values of these parameters are obtained from the databases. In this paper, limitation of the latter approach is presented, showing that when the currently available ridging parameters for the Arctic are used, the expected amount of ice along the route underestimates the one measured by a submarine by 29%. As an alternative approach, a novel method for estimating the equivalent-volume ice thickness without requiring ridging parameters is presented. It proposes substitution of WMO ice thickness ranges, currently accounting only for the level ice, with equivalent-volume ice thickness ranges (EVITRs), accounting both for the level ice and for the deformed ice features. The method is based on correlating the amount of deformed ice to the stage of development of the ambient level ice, by analyzing a series of ice thickness profiles for a certain area and season. Consequently, the method provides a mean for the estimation of the total amount of ice and its components along a route based only on the information available in the egg code. The results of a case study in the Arctic show an increased accuracy of the EVITR-based method compared to the ridging parameters-based method, reducing the average error in estimation of the total amount of ice along the vessel's route from 29% to 2%.Publicationtype: Journal Article179 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Current status and future operational models for transit shipping along the Northern Sea RouteThe Northern Sea Route (NSR) has received increased international attention during the recent years as an alternative transit corridor for shipping between Europe and East Asia. In 2015, the project “Feasibility and Reliability of Shipping on the Northern Sea Route and Modeling of an Arctic Marine Transportation & Logistics System” was established to perform a comprehensive analysis of the current status and future prospects of NSR transit shipping. The project brought together several partners and numerous participants representing industry, governmental bodies, and research groups from Europe, Asia, and Russia, thus providing a unique and comprehensive overview of the subject. This paper is based on the insights gathered during the project. Firstly, it provides a comprehensive overview of the NSR's current regulations and support services. Secondly, it combines the information on the current status of the route with feedback received from the stakeholders during project discussions for the purpose of establishing several possible future operational models for transit shipping along the NSR. It is concluded that the most probable of the analyzed operational models is a combination of ice-strengthened vessels and independent ice-going cargo vessels. This model requires a decrease in severity of ice conditions to allow for year-round commercial navigation, an increase in bunker prices, further development of maritime infrastructure and icebreaking support, and the development of new maritime insurance models. Additionally, establishing transshipment hubs at each end of the NSR with ice-going cargo vessels sailing between them is also considered to be a viable future option.Publicationtype: Journal Article149