Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis

Publikationstyp
Book part
Date Issued
2018-02-14
Sprache
English
Author(s)
Daim, T. H.  
Rueda, Guillermo  
Martin, Hillary  
Gerdsri, Pisek  
TORE-URI
http://hdl.handle.net/11420/2313
First published in
World Scientific series in R&D management  
Number in series
2
Start Page
305
End Page
354
Citation
Technology Roadmapping: 305-354 (2018-02-14)
Publisher DOI
10.1142/9789813235342
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-85058900278
Publisher
World Scientific
It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into wellknown technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety, and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.