Managing uncertainty by leveraging flexibility in smart energy systems: AI-supported distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization

Citation
34th IEEE International Symposium on Industrial Electronics, ISIE 2025
Contribution to Conference
34th IEEE International Symposium on Industrial Electronics, ISIE 2025  
Publisher DOI
10.1109/isie62713.2025.11124742
Scopus ID
2-s2.0-105016183628
Publisher
IEEE
The rapid decarbonization of the energy systems to meet climate targets is driving increased electrification across various energy sectors, with the electrification of the household heating sector posing significant challenges for electrical networks in many parts of Europe. Electric heat pumps (UP), paired with thermal storage (TS), have cemented themselves as the key technology in this transition, offering high efficiency and signif-icant flexibility for load shifting and energy storage. However, this flexibility is subject to uncertainty due to variable weather conditions and user behavior. In this paper, an AI -enhanced framework for optimizing the operation of a UP-dominated res-idential network under uncertainty is presented. The framework utilizes a Bayesian neural network to generate forecasts for UP demand based on real measured data, creating a data-driven, AI-enhanced ambiguity set in the distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) optimization. This approach enhances the confidence level in the proposed dispatch plan by addressing forecast uncertainty in a statistically robust manner. By effectively leveraging the thermal system's flexibility, it mitigates the risk of constraint violations and ensures reliable grid operation. Val-idation on a residential network demonstrates that the proposed framework achieves higher robustness and reliability compared to traditional deterministic models, highlighting its potential to support the energy transition.
Subjects
Industrial electronics
Heat pumps
Neural networks
Weather forecasting
Electrification
Low carbon economy
Robustness
Thermal loading
Resistance heating
Distributionally robust chance-constrained optimization
flexibility
heat pump
multi-energy systems
Optimization
uncertainty
DDC Class
620: Engineering