Cost analysis of kerosene production from power-based syngas via the Fischer-Tropsch and methanol pathway

Current estimates for power-based kerosene production costs are up to ten times higher than conventional, fossil fuel-based kerosene prices. Therefore, successful market integration necessitates a thorough understanding of the cost structure and the key factors influencing kerosene production costs. This paper provides an extensive cost analysis of power-based kerosene production comparing two different plant concepts, one using the Fischer-Tropsch synthesis and hydrotreatment (FT pathway), the other applying direct methanol synthesis with downstream dehydration and oligomerization (MeOH pathway). Two cost allocation methods are applied to address uncertainties associated with unpredictable by-product revenues: allocating costs solely to the kerosene fraction, without considering by-product revenues, establishes the upper cost limit, while allocating costs at the total fuel fraction, defines the lower cost boundary. For these two cases, possible cost ranges are evaluated by varying technical and economic frame conditions. For the “total fuel allocation”, the FT pathway yields lower kerosene production cost than the methanol pathway (FT: 3,630 €/t, MeOH: 4,240 €/t). But contrarily for the “kerosene allocation”, the MeOH pathway shows lower cost (FT: 5,070 €/t, MeOH: 4,660 €/t). By-product revenue variation indicates benefits for the FT pathway if naphtha prices above 30 % of the kerosene production cost can be achieved. In all cases, costs are mainly affected by the supply of H2 and CO2; thus, feedstock conversion efficiency is the most important factor determining the production costs besides feedstock prices. While variations in the H2 price (3 to 7 €/kg) significantly influence kerosene production costs for both pathways (ca. ± 25 %), CO2 prices at the level of CO2 supply costs from DAC (1,000 €/t) can lead to even higher cost increases of up to 75 % compared to CO2 prices related to carbon capture costs from point sources (150 €/t). Thus, this analysis provides novel insights into the cost composition and the most important influencing parameters for the two most widely discussed production pathways for power-based kerosene production and enables comparison and assessment of production costs under different framework conditions.

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DDC Class

660: Chemistry; Chemical Engineering

Funding(s)

Projekt DEAL

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publishedVersion

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https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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1-s2.0-S0016236124030515-main.pdf

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2.09 MB

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Adobe PDF

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Cost analysis of kerosene production from power-based syngas via the Fischer-Tropsch and methanol pathway