Kosten autonom fahrender Minibusse : Literaturanalyse ergänzt um Erfahrungen aus dem Betrieb eines Testprojektes und den Ergebnissen einer Expert:innenbefragung

In rural areas, local public transport services are often unsatisfactory. With the slowly advancing development of autonomous driving, the question arises as to what savings potential buses without drivers offer for the creation of new attractive forms of service. By means of a literature analysis and a two stage Delphi survey, involving 36 experts from transport companies, the vehicle industry, administration and research, new findings and estimates on the costs of autonomous minibuses were obtained. In addition, experience was gained from the TaBuLa real laboratory in Lauenburg/Elbe, where two automated buses were used to supplement existing bus services. The results show that special requirements must be placed on public transport vehicles in favour of barrierfree usability and special intensity of use, which lead to increased investment costs compared to taxis and private cars. While concrete investment costs for autonomously driving small minibuses can be determined for the time of market maturity - according to experts between 2025 and 2040 - the countless operating cost parameters in the surveys remain trends for individual cost forecasting. However, it is clear that in addition to a large saving due to the reduction in the number of drivers, many operating costs could increase. According to the expert survey, the costs for IT systems, technical control centre, system security and passengers have been underestimated in the literature so far. Nevertheless, in a larger fleet operation of autonomous vehicles, a onethird lower price per timetable kilometre can be expected in local public transport. It is also apparent that automation will lead to a new division of roles between vehicle manufacturers, transport companies and public transport authorities.