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Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Changes in future precipitation of the Canadian catchments using 9-km downscaled CMIP6 simulations(Taylor & Francis, 2026-03-22); ; Analyzing the impacts of climate change on precipitation patterns, encompassing daily, seasonal, and extreme values, at the catchment scale is critical for understanding regional hydrological changes and informing water resource management strategies. This study examines projected changes in precipitation patterns across eleven major Canadian catchments under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) using 9-km downscaled CMIP6 simulations. By analyzing daily, seasonal, and extreme precipitation metrics, we provide insights into future precipitation dynamics. Results show significant increases in daily precipitation magnitudes, with northern and coastal regions experiencing the highest growth rates, particularly under SSP5-8.5. Seasonal analysis highlights pronounced precipitation growth during spring and winter, with coastal and mountainous regions exhibiting consistently high values. Extreme precipitation events, including annual maxima and the 95th and 99th percentiles, intensify under high-emission scenarios, with northern regions experiencing the largest relative increases. These findings underscore the critical need for region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate risks related to flooding, water resource management, and infrastructure resilience in a changing climate.Publicationtype: Journal Article7 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: with files , Performance of current canola (Brassica napus) hybrids under future rainfed production management(Elsevier, 2026-02); ; ; Canola is vulnerable to the current changing weather conditions, mainly due to moisture and temperature-related stresses. Adaptation strategies such as shifting planting dates allow producers to improve canola's response to environmental conditions. This study aims to explore the optimal setting to increase canola productivity within the Canadian Prairies under future scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Hence, we define the optimal planting period to avoid water and temperature stresses as well as the optimal nitrogen (N) concentration in fertilization to maximize canola productivity. We used DSSAT-Pythia to simulate four canola hybrids, 24 planting dates, five nitrogen concentrations, and four future climate scenarios, with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Canadian Prairies. The model's performance showed satisfactory predictions of canola phenology and grain yield for all hybrids. On spatial and temporal averages, the second hybrid showed highest yield values, with most values between 2500 and 3000 kg ha−1. In addition, spatial analysis shows that the first hybrid can complete the crop cycle in all growing zones when planted early (April), and the second and third hybrids completed the cycle when planted later (June and July). Nitrogen uptake was affected by weather conditions. The higher the temperature, especially during the bolting stage, the less nitrogen uptake from the plant. Fertilization with high N concentration (200 kg ha−1) is expected to be more effective before May 19 under very hot scenarios and before June 08 under mild temperatures. Overall, canola yield increased with an increase in N concentration.Publicationtype: Journal Article16 10 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: with files , Initial exploration of Canola producers' approaches in response to changing climate in the Canadian Prairie provinces(Wiley, 2026-01-04); ; ; ; Alberta, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan, the Prairie Provinces of Canada, lead national oilseed cultivation. Canola is a staple crop that provides food oil and feedstock for biofuels. Canola production is vulnerable to climate variability, and climate change has altered crop cycles and affected Canadian canola producers. This study aims to generate an initial understanding of canola producers' perceptions of climate change, their current adaptation strategies, and drivers and barriers to implementing new adaptation strategies in the Canadian Prairies. Besides, identifying the public policy needs to improve the canola production sector. Data were collected through an online survey and key informant interviews. Most participants identified changes in climate and frequency of extreme events. They identified a higher occurrence of heat waves and wind gusts and had to adapt to a higher presence of pests and diseases. Despite climate variability, canola productivity has improved in the last ten years, attributed to better technology and management of inputs. Genetic improvement is seen as a crucial part of canola's resistance to biotic and abiotic events. Most participant producers make independent decisions regarding adaptation and best practices at the field level. There is a vast and diverse outreach from researchers and specialists that producers are able to use in decision-making around implementing new or improved technologies. Participants recommended new and enhanced public policies to regulate the canola industry and seed market, technologies and data use, fossil fuel use, land and water management, and crop nutrition. These initial understandings point to ways in which regulatory bodies and specialists can continue to support producers to mitigate negative impacts of a changing climate and inform shareholders and policymakers of current needs and expectations.Publicationtype: Journal Article6 6 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: with files , Rainfed spring canola yield response to changing heat and water stress in the Canadian Prairie region(Elsevier, 2025-11-08); ; ; 16 16 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Sustainability Nexus AID: storms(Springer, 2025-01-06); ; 10 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Drought intensification in Brazilian catchments: implications for water and land management(IOP Publishing, 2024-04-30); ; ; ; Droughts exert widespread impacts on both natural and social systems, and there is accumulating evidence that this situation may worsen in the context of global warming. Despite the importance of assessing changes in droughts to understand their potential future impacts on society, studies are unevenly distributed worldwide. In this study, utilizing bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations and a standard precipitation-evaporation index based approach, we quantified expected changes in future drought properties across 735 Brazilian catchments under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Beyond evaluating the statistical properties of future droughts, we assessed their occurrence under both land use and water demand perspectives and propose a new framework to better understand their link with changes in long- and short-term conditions of precipitation ( P ) and potential evapotranspiration ( PET ). Our results indicate that drought events are projected to become more frequent and severe in the future, with high CMIP6 model agreement. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, at least half of Brazilian cropland and pasture areas will experience an increase of over 30% in drought properties by the end of the century. Furthermore, among the 85% of catchments expected to experience more severe droughts, nearly 90% are also projected to exhibit increased water demand, which will likely exacerbate future water scarcity. The investigation of the relationship between droughts changes and climate variables suggests that catchments with augmented droughts in the future will likely exhibit increased long-term average PET and P -variability, but not necessarily long-term average P . For instance, over 50% of evaluated Brazilian catchments are expected to experience an intensification of drought properties even with increases in P mean . We believe this study may contribute (a) to improve Brazilian water resiliency by helping achieve the objectives of the National Water Security Plan and (b) to deepen our understanding of droughts in an uncertain future.Publicationtype: Journal Article13 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Crop models and their use in assessing crop production and food security: a review(Wiley, 2023-09-22); ; ; Li, ZhenhuaAgriculture is directly related to food security as it determines the global food supply. Research in agriculture to predict crop productivity and losses helps avoid high food demand with little supply and price spikes. Here, we review ten crop models and one intercomparison project used for simulating crop growth and productivity under various impacts from soil–crop–atmosphere interactions. The review outlines food security and production assessments using numerical models for maize, wheat, and rice production. A summary of reviewed studies shows the following: (1) model ensembles provide smaller modeling errors compared to single models, (2) single models show better results when coupled with other types of models, (3) the ten reviewed crop models had improvements over the years and can accurately predict crop growth and yield for most of the locations, management conditions, and genotypes tested, (4) APSIM and DSSAT are fast and reliable in assessing broader output variables, (5) AquaCrop is indicated to investigate water footprint, quality and use efficiency in rainfed and irrigated systems, (6) all models assess nitrogen dynamics and use efficiency efficiently, excluding AquaCrop and WOFOST, (7) JULES specifies in evaluating food security vulnerability, (8) ORYZA is the main crop model used to evaluate paddy rice production, (9) grain filling is usually assessed with APSIM, DAISY, and DSSAT, and (10) the ten crop models can be used as tools to evaluate food production, availability, and security.Publicationtype: Review Article6