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    Item type:Publication, Access status: with files ,
    Performance of current canola (Brassica napus) hybrids under future rainfed production management
    (Elsevier, 2026-02)
    Gavasso-Rita, Yohanne Larissa
    ;
    Abdelmoaty, Hebatallah Mohamed
    ;
    Yanping, Li
    ;
    Papalexiou, Simon Michael
    Canola is vulnerable to the current changing weather conditions, mainly due to moisture and temperature-related stresses. Adaptation strategies such as shifting planting dates allow producers to improve canola's response to environmental conditions. This study aims to explore the optimal setting to increase canola productivity within the Canadian Prairies under future scenarios from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Hence, we define the optimal planting period to avoid water and temperature stresses as well as the optimal nitrogen (N) concentration in fertilization to maximize canola productivity. We used DSSAT-Pythia to simulate four canola hybrids, 24 planting dates, five nitrogen concentrations, and four future climate scenarios, with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° in the Canadian Prairies. The model's performance showed satisfactory predictions of canola phenology and grain yield for all hybrids. On spatial and temporal averages, the second hybrid showed highest yield values, with most values between 2500 and 3000 kg ha−1. In addition, spatial analysis shows that the first hybrid can complete the crop cycle in all growing zones when planted early (April), and the second and third hybrids completed the cycle when planted later (June and July). Nitrogen uptake was affected by weather conditions. The higher the temperature, especially during the bolting stage, the less nitrogen uptake from the plant. Fertilization with high N concentration (200 kg ha−1) is expected to be more effective before May 19 under very hot scenarios and before June 08 under mild temperatures. Overall, canola yield increased with an increase in N concentration.
    Publicationtype: Journal Article
      16  10
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    Item type:Publication, Access status: with files ,
    Rainfed spring canola yield response to changing heat and water stress in the Canadian Prairie region
    (Elsevier, 2025-11-08)
    Gavasso-Rita, Yohanne Larissa
    ;
    Zaerpour, Masoud
    ;
    Abdelmoaty, Hebatallah
    ;
    Li, Yanping
    ;
    Elshorbagy, Amin
    Canola is a significant crop in Canadian agriculture and the economy. However, Canada’s average temperatures have risen rapidly over the past eight decades, changing temperature patterns and water availability for canola production. This study aims to explore the impacts of air temperature and soil water availability on spring canola production from 2025 to 2050. Accordingly, this study introduces DSSAT calibration and simulation of the current hybrid InVigor®L340PC, integrating the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Leveraging DSSAT-Pythia, gridded simulations capture spatial variability in water and temperature stress interactions, driven by a large ensemble of climate models. The analysis reveals how precipitation and temperature changes jointly influence spring canola development. Yield projections under these conditions provide critical insights into the future viability of rainfed spring canola and inform adaptation strategies for growers and policymakers. Findings demonstrate negative impacts on exclusively rainfed spring canola production in the Canadian Prairie Region under diverse climate scenarios from 2025 to 2050. The main canola growing ecozone (Aspen Parkland) is expected to have higher air temperatures and lower soil water content if greenhouse gas emissions keep rising. An average increase of 1.5◦C in air temperature and 0.025 in the water stress factor indices may result in annual yield reductions of 203 ± 4.3 and 121 ± 13.6 kg ha⁻¹, in Lake Manitoba Plain and Aspen Parkland ecoregions, respectively. Given that future canola production is expected to continue in the same ecoregions it is recommended that adaptation and mitigation strategies are developed and adopted to improve canola production conditions in these ecoregions.
    Publicationtype: Journal Article
      17  21