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Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , How likely is Ukraine to experience an extreme drought in the near future?(Springer, 2025-06-01); ; ; This study assesses projected changes in precipitation (), discharge (), and soil moisture ()-based droughts in Ukraine using CMIP6 bias-corrected climate models and the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM). Despite model variability, results reveal substantial increases in - and -droughts' duration and severity across all scenarios, with the most severe impacts under SSP5-8.5 in the end of the century. Specifically, for both drought types, 50-year extreme - and -droughts are projected to be the norm by 2055, exhibiting at least a twofold increase in duration and severity by the end of the century under SSP5-8.5. -droughts, in contrast, are projected to show relatively modest increases in severity and duration. Beyond enhanced droughts, water availability is anticipated to decline across the country, further exacerbating Ukraine’s water- and agriculture-related issues in a war-affected context. These findings underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management to secure Ukraine’s agricultural sector—a cornerstone of regional and global food security—against the dual threats of drought intensification and the ongoing conflict.Publicationtype: Journal Article32 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Water cycle changes in Czechia: a multi-source water budget perspective(EGU, 2024-01-02); ; ; ; Dutta, RiyaThe water cycle in Czechia has been observed to be changing in recent years, with precipitation and evapotranspiration rates exhibiting a trend of acceleration. However, the spatial patterns of such changes remain poorly understood due to the heterogeneous network of ground observations. This study relied on multiple state-of-the-art reanalyses and hydrological modeling. Herein, we propose a novel method for benchmarking hydroclimatic data fusion based on water cycle budget closure. We ranked water cycle budget closure of 96 different combinations for precipitation, evapotranspiration, and runoff using CRU TS v4.06, E-OBS, ERA5-Land, mHM, NCEP/NCAR R1, PREC/L, and TerraClimate. Then, we used the best-ranked data to describe changes in the water cycle in Czechia over the last 60 years. We determined that Czechia is undergoing water cycle acceleration, evinced by increased atmospheric water fluxes. However, the increase in annual total precipitation is not as pronounced nor as consistent as evapotranspiration, resulting in an overall decrease in the runoff. Furthermore, non-parametric bootstrapping revealed that only evapotranspiration changes are statistically significant at the annual scale. At higher frequencies, we identified significant spatial heterogeneity when assessing the water cycle budget at a seasonal scale. Interestingly, the most significant temporal changes in Czechia occur during spring, while the spatial pattern of the change in median values stems from summer changes in the water cycle, which are the seasons within the months with statistically significant changes.Publicationtype: Journal Article5