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    Item type:Publication, Access status: with files ,
    Apparent heavy tails of sub-daily precipitation explained by the coexistence of lighter-tailed processes
    (Wiley, 2026-01-28)
    Marra, Francesco
    ;
    Dallan, Eleonora
    ;
    Canale, Antonio
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    Prosdocimi, Ilaria
    ;
    Papacharalampous, Georgia
    Extreme value theory is routinely applied to estimate rainfall frequency for several accumulation periods. Typically, it is found that sub-daily precipitation has power-type tails, meaning that the probability of observing increasingly large magnitudes decreases as a power law. Physical arguments, however, suggest it should have lighter, stretched exponential, tails. Here, we reconcile these perspectives showing that part of the contradiction is caused by precipitation process heterogeneity. We examine hundreds of sub-daily precipitation records in the Greater Alpine Area, for which a classification of storms into homogeneous types is available. We find that an apparent heavy-tail behavior is reported at scales of 1–6 hr, and is explained by the coexistence of stratiform and convective processes, both characterized by stretched exponential tails. Our results challenge the assumptions which justify the use of extreme value theory for sub-daily precipitation, with important implications for how design values are determined.
    Publicationtype: Letter to the Editor
      19  11
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    Item type:Publication, Access status: without files ,
    The legacy of STAHY: milestones, achievements, challenges, and open problems in statistical hydrology
    (AHS Press, 2024-09-25)
    Volpi, Elena
    ;
    Grimaldi, Salvatore
    ;
    AghaKouchak, Amir
    ;
    Castellarin, Attilio
    ;
    Chebana, Fateh
    Statistical tools are crucial for a variety of hydrological applications, whether to model processes and enhance understanding and knowledge or to design infrastructure systems. Given the rapid evolution of statistical methods and the need for a solid theoretical foundation for their correct application, a multidisciplinary community STAtistics in HYdrology Working Group (STAHY-WG) aggregated under the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) umbrella to contribute to this research field. Now, more than 15 years since its inception, this paper summarizes the main achievements of this productive community collaboration in four (of many) branches of statistical hydrology: extreme value analysis, multivariate analysis, time series analysis, and regionalization. The aim is to provide an overview of recent developments, offer practical suggestions (e.g. software packages), and outline future challenges to support scientists and practitioners in their endeavours within the realm of statistical hydrology studies.
    Publicationtype: Journal Article
      8