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Item type:Publication, Access status: with files , Climate change both increases and decreases winter snowmelt across North America(Elsevier, 2026-09-11); ; ; ; Snowmelt, a vital source of freshwater for a large portion of North America’s population, is increasingly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. Air temperature and precipitation are significant climatic controllers regulating snowmelt dynamics. In this study, we quantified the response of winter snowmelt magnitude to changing temperature and precipitation across North America (Canada and the United States) using gridded, observation-driven data and future projections. Our analysis of far-future conditions (2091-2100) reveals a significant increase (>60%) in winter (November-March) snowmelt in northern latitudes, while southern latitudes are projected to experience a decline (<38%). Projected snowmelt changes are strongly associated with changes in winter temperature, while projected declines are consistent with regions experiencing reduced snowfall under warming climates. Our findings suggest that the probability of an increase in winter snowmelt is high under the warmer and wetter climatic conditions prevailing in northern regions. In contrast, winter snowmelt across southern latitudes is likely to decrease. Plain language summary: Snowmelt plays a critical role in sustaining water resources for large populations across North America. As temperature and precipitation are major climatic factors regulating snowmelt dynamics, changes in these variables can affect the magnitude of snowmelt. Given projected climate change, it is essential to assess the vulnerability of snowmelt magnitude to changing temperatures and precipitation to understand future water availability. Our analysis of future winter snowmelt under compound changes in air temperature and precipitation across North America indicates that winter snowmelt could increase by 60% in many regions of Canada. In contrast, in southern areas, the winter snowmelt volume could decrease by as much as 38%. These results suggest that warmer winters are the primary driver of increased snowmelt, while reduced snowfall primarily governs the projected snowmelt declines.Publicationtype: Journal Article5 4 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: with files , Declining number of northern hemisphere land-surface frozen days under global warming and thinner snowpacks(Springer, 2026); ; ; 23 12 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Agriculture’s impact on water–energy balance varies across climates(2025-03-25); ; Agriculture is a cornerstone of global food production, accounting for a substantial portion of water withdrawals worldwide. As the world’s population grows, so does the demand for water in agriculture, leading to alterations in regional water–energy balances. We present an approach to identify the influence of agriculture on the water–energy balance using empirical data. We explore the departure from the Budyko curve for catchments with agricultural expansion and their associations with changes in the water–energy balance using a causal discovery algorithm. Analyzing data from 1,342 catchments across three Köppen-Geiger climate classes—temperate, snowy, and others—from 1980 to 2014, we show that temperate and snowy catchments, which account for over 90% of stations, exhibit distinct patterns. Cropland percentage (CL%) emerges as the dominant factor, explaining 47 and 37% of the variance in deviations from the Budyko curve in temperate and snowy catchments, respectively. In temperate catchments, CL% shows a strong negative correlation with precipitation-streamflow (P-Q) causal strength (Spearman Ƿ = −0.75), suggesting that cropland exacerbates precipitation-driven deviations. A moderate negative correlation with aridity-streamflow (AR-Q) causal strength (Ƿ = −0.42) indicates additional influences of cropland through aridity-driven interactions. In snowy catchments, CL% is similarly influential, with a positive correlation with P-Q causal strength (Ƿ = 0.51). However, the negative correlation with AR-Q causal strength (Ƿ = −0.45) underscores the role of aridity as a secondary driver. While vegetation and precipitation seasonality also contribute to the deviations, their impacts are comparatively lower. These findings underscore the need for inclusion of agricultural activities in changing water–energy balance to secure future water supplies.Publicationtype: Journal Article16 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Sustainability Nexus AID: storms(Springer, 2025-01-06); ; 10 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Climate shapes baseflows, influencing drought severity(2025); ; Baseflow, the sustained flow from groundwater, lakes, and snowmelt, is essential for maintaining surface water flow, particularly during droughts. Amid rising global water demands and climate change impacts, understanding baseflow dynamics is crucial for water resource management. This study offers new insights by assessing baseflow controls at finer temporal scales and examining their relationship with hydrological drought flows. We investigate how climatic factors influence seasonal baseflow in 7138 global catchments across five major climate regions. Our analysis identifies precipitation as the primary driver, affecting 58.3% of catchments, though its impact varies significantly across different climates. In temperate regions, precipitation dominates (61.9% of catchments), while in tropical regions, evaporative demand is the leading factor (47.3%). Snow fraction is particularly crucial in both snow-dominated (20.8%) and polar regions (48.5%). Negative baseflow trends generally emerge where the effects of evaporative demand or snow fraction outweigh those of precipitation. Specifically, in northern regions and the Rocky Mountains, where snow fraction predominantly controls baseflow changes, a negative trend is evident. Similarly, in tropical catchments, where evaporative demand drives baseflow changes, this also leads to a negative trend. Additionally, our findings indicate that baseflow changes are closely linked to hydrologic drought severity, with concurrent trends observed in 69% of catchments. These findings highlight the relationship between baseflow changes, the severity of hydrologic drought and shifts in precipitation, evaporative demand, and snow dynamics. This study provides crucial insights for sustainable water resource planning and climate change adaptation, emphasizing the importance of managing groundwater-fed river flows to mitigate drought impacts.Publicationtype: Journal Article24 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Impacts of agriculture and snow dynamics on catchment water balance in the U.S. and Great Britain(2024-12); 17 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Drought intensification in Brazilian catchments: implications for water and land management(IOP Publishing, 2024-04-30); ; ; ; Droughts exert widespread impacts on both natural and social systems, and there is accumulating evidence that this situation may worsen in the context of global warming. Despite the importance of assessing changes in droughts to understand their potential future impacts on society, studies are unevenly distributed worldwide. In this study, utilizing bias-corrected CMIP6 simulations and a standard precipitation-evaporation index based approach, we quantified expected changes in future drought properties across 735 Brazilian catchments under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Beyond evaluating the statistical properties of future droughts, we assessed their occurrence under both land use and water demand perspectives and propose a new framework to better understand their link with changes in long- and short-term conditions of precipitation ( P ) and potential evapotranspiration ( PET ). Our results indicate that drought events are projected to become more frequent and severe in the future, with high CMIP6 model agreement. According to the SSP5-8.5 scenario, at least half of Brazilian cropland and pasture areas will experience an increase of over 30% in drought properties by the end of the century. Furthermore, among the 85% of catchments expected to experience more severe droughts, nearly 90% are also projected to exhibit increased water demand, which will likely exacerbate future water scarcity. The investigation of the relationship between droughts changes and climate variables suggests that catchments with augmented droughts in the future will likely exhibit increased long-term average PET and P -variability, but not necessarily long-term average P . For instance, over 50% of evaluated Brazilian catchments are expected to experience an intensification of drought properties even with increases in P mean . We believe this study may contribute (a) to improve Brazilian water resiliency by helping achieve the objectives of the National Water Security Plan and (b) to deepen our understanding of droughts in an uncertain future.Publicationtype: Journal Article14 - Some of the metrics are blocked by yourconsent settings
Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Frequency rather than intensity drives projected changes of rainfall events in Brazil(Wiley-Blackwell, 2024-01-25); ; ; ; Extreme rainfall events are expected to intensify with global warming, posing significant challenges to both human and natural environments. Despite the importance of such assessments, they are unevenly widespread across the globe. Here, using bias corrected climate simulations of the latest phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we provide a comprehensive assessment on how different rainfall events are expected to change across Brazil. Specifically, (a) we explored the projected changes in both intensity and frequency of rainfall events belonging to the right-tail of the rainfall distribution using a non-parametric approach, and (b) quantified how rainfall events associate with different return periods are expected to intensify, using a parametric approach. We found that extreme rainfall events will become more frequent and intense by the end of the century, with averaged projected changes for rainfall exceeding the historical rainfall quantile q₀.₉₉ of nearly 100% and 10% on frequency and intensity, respectively. Non-extreme rainfall events, in contrast, are expected to be less frequent, aligning with the compensation hypothesis. For instance, Brazilian 100-year rainfall are anticipated to intensify, on average, 17% and 31% under the moderate and the highest CMIP6 emission scenarios, respectively. Finally, our findings suggest that frequency, rather than intensity, dictates the projected changes of rainfall. We believe that the evidence gathered here will certainly contribute to not only an improved understanding of Brazilian rainfall events but also to a better comprehension of the different rainfall properties, their interplay and how the different ways of assessing them may affect climate studies.Publicationtype: Journal Article13