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    Item type:Publication, Access status: without files ,
    Analyzing global passenger flows based on choice modeling in the air transportation system
    (Elsevier, 2024-03)
    Kölker, Katrin
    ;
    Lütjens, Klaus
    ;
    Gollnick, Volker
    Airline passenger decisions determine operation of airlines and aircraft. Therefore, global air transport models need to consider these decisions. Thereby, we develop a discrete choice model for passenger decisions describing global passenger flows based on different parameters. The model distinguishes between passenger itineraries defined by attributes like ticket price, travel time and number of transfers. Additional attributes are added gradually. It is estimated using schedule and passenger demand data. Hence, based on topological structures of the air transport system, global passenger flows and elasticities can be identified. Additionally, we provide quantified results describing the elasticity of several types of attributes, the values of travel time, the quality of travel and compare them for different regions, itineraries and travel types.
    Publicationtype: Journal Article
      44
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    From passenger itineraries to climate impact: Analyzing the implications of a new mid-range aircraft on the global air transportation system
    (2023-10)
    Kühlen, Markus
    ;
    Kölker, Katrin
    ;
    Linke, Florian
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    Dahlmann, Katrin
    ;
    Gollnick, Volker
    Aircraft design usually focuses on utilizing new technologies to improve mission performance of individual aircraft and, thus, reduce cost, emissions and climate impact of the global air transportation system (ATS). However, efficiency gains in the ATS can also be achieved by improving the alignment of payload–range capabilities and aircraft–route assignment of the overall fleet. Therefore, this article analyzes the implications—from passenger itineraries to climate impact—of a new mid-range aircraft (NMRA), which addresses the current lack of modern, designated mid-range aircraft in commercial production. The analysis is based on simulating and comparing two future scenarios with similar technology levels: one with and one without a NMRA. The core of the applied novel simulation framework is highly integrated models for passenger itinerary preferences, fleet development and aircraft–route assignment. Models for passenger demand as well as aircraft trajectories, emissions and climate impact complement the simulation framework. The results show that introducing a NMRA to the ATS improves the quality of travel for passengers and the alignment of payload–range capabilities and aircraft–route assignment for the overall aircraft fleet. As a consequence, the NMRA reduces the fuel consumption, emissions and climate impact of the ATS in our future scenarios by up to 1.4% (pessimistic) and 2.1% (optimistic). We conclude that a higher fleet diversification and a better alignment of payload–range capabilities and aircraft–route assignment through introducing a NMRA can marginally improve the fuel efficiency and climate impact of the ATS.
    Publicationtype: Journal Article
      22
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    From passenger growth to aircraft movements
    (2016-09-01)
    Kölker, Katrin
    ;
    Bießlich, Peter
    ;
    Lütjens, Klaus
    Airlines are able to deal with passenger growth by either increasing the frequency or the aircraft size, which may entail different numbers of aircraft movements. Forecasting the latter is necessary for evaluating technologies, approaching future emissions or anticipating capacity constraints. Purpose of this paper is to forecast a typical fleet mix and the growth of aircraft movements on flight segments worldwide based on an assumed passenger growth. The methodology is implemented in a model called Forecast of Aircraft Movements. Basic approach is the assignment of each flight segment worldwide to a distance, passenger number and aircraft category. For each combination of distance and passenger numbers a typical fleet mix is defined. The forecasted worldwide growth of passenger demand and the empirically determined fleet mix is applied to all segments in order to derive a future scenario. Assuming a certain seat load factor, the frequency growth can be deduced from the aircraft movements generated for all segments. The paper includes a forecast for aircraft movements in a future scenario based on real schedule and passenger data and gives a detailed overview of the methodology and results considering airlines' behaviour.
    Publicationtype: Journal Article
      158
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    Approach to forecast air-traffic movements at capacity-constrained airports
    (American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), 2015-03-25)
    Wenzel, Steffen
    ;
    Kölker, Katrin
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    Bießlich, Peter
    ;
    Latjens, Klaus
    A model chain being implemented in one tool has been presented to derive a flight plan based on the capacities of the airport and given passenger demand, and applied on Hamburg Airport. Validation shows that, even though every submodel uses certain assumptions and simplifications, the tool chain generates generic flight plans that highly match current sample flight plans. Thus, the tool offers airports the opportunity to easily evaluate existing infrastructure capacity and planned infrastructure extensions regarding future air-traffic movements. Using a modular tool chain analyzing drivers for air-traffic growth, considering airline and passenger preferences, fleet development, and airport capacity, the air-traffic movements are forecasted. By validation of each submodel, a high-quality forecast is achieved. Because of the modularity of the tool chain, every submodel can easily be changed or adapted to prospective developments.
    Publicationtype: Journal Article
      47
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    An approach to forecast air traffic movements at capacity-constrained airports
    (American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics (AIAA), 2014-06)
    Wenzel, Steffen
    ;
    Kölker, Katrin
    ;
    Bießlich, Peter
    ;
    Lütjens, Klaus
    Due to steadily growing air traffic, airports need a means to evaluate the capability of their infrastructure to handle future air traffic movements. Sound forecasts are needed for fundraising, within lawsuits, and in order to avoid misplanning. The quality of current forecasts is often queried. Hence, this work introduces parts of a tool chain that derives future air traffic movements out of transport scenarios and compares them to the capacity of an airport. Five consecutive models within the chain yield future air traffic movements for one airport considering passenger demand, a forecast of aircraft movements, airline preferences and airport capacity.
    Publicationtype: Conference Paper
      35