Bewertung von neuer Technik in der Mobilität am Beispiel autonomer Minibusse im ÖPNV ländlicher Räume

Grote, Matthias

doi:https://doi.org/10.15480/882.16196

Bewertung von neuer Technik in der Mobilität am Beispiel autonomer Minibusse im ÖPNV ländlicher Räume

Citation Link: https://doi.org/10.15480/882.16196

Publikationstyp

Doctoral Thesis

Date Issued

2026

Sprache

German

Author(s)

Grote, Matthias

Advisor

Gertz, Carsten

Referee

Berger, Martin

Title Granting Institution

Technische Universität Hamburg

Place of Title Granting Institution

Hamburg

Examination Date

2025-08-25

Institute

Verkehrsplanung und Logistik W-8

TORE-DOI

10.15480/882.16196

TORE-URI

https://hdl.handle.net/11420/58944

First published in

Harburger Berichte zur Verkehrsplanung und Logistik

Number in series

26

Citation

Harburger Berichte zur Verkehrsplanung und Logistik 26: (2025)

There are many hopes associated with autonomous driving in road traffic. These include greater road safety, better participation of people without a driving licence, a different use of the time gained and a reduction in the costs of motorised transport. Flexible mobility for all is expected in rural areas. However, in many respects, there is currently insufficient information available on the specific consequences of autonomous driving. The aim of this paper is to counter this deficit by using a procedure that provides knowledge at an early stage in a holistic assessment of a new mobility technology. In addition to determining the current state of the technology and its potential, the risks and collateral effects of the socio-technical system are to be identified. In the specific application of the procedure, the focus is to be on driverless minibuses in local public transport in rural areas as a possible area of application for the technology. Although the research carried out on available solutions to the methodological challenge does not provide a directly applicable procedure from the fields of transport planning, technology assessment and technology evaluation, it does however provide helpful theoretical findings. These lead to a highly structured procedure that is suitable for the evaluation of a technology in mobility. The work phases are divided into a scoping process, a definition of the individual target system, a review of the application conditions, a synthesis of potential application scenarios and an analysis and comprehensive evaluation of the socio-technical system. The decisive valuation phase comprises the determination of individual target achievement, an understanding of the current impact structure and a multiperspective categorisation of the risks. When applying the previously developed procedure, various methods are used to access the “Test centre for automated buses in the district of Herzogtum Lauenburg”, which enables the practical testing of automated test vehicles and the participation of stakeholders, users and the public. As a result, the evaluation shows that the use of driverless vehicles in public transport cannot fundamentally solve the challenges of mobility in diverse rural areas. The anticipated great potential of driverless minibuses in terms of increased safety, cost reduction with dispersed demand and unrestricted social participation currently appears to be overestimated for the application under consideration. The application of the risk analysis reveals negative consequences of driverless driving: potential dangers with a high level of damage include, in particular, misuse or manipulation of the technology, negative environmental and health effects, lack of participation and high complexity with susceptibility to faults and corresponding consequences in the event of high technical dependency. Further specific risks are identified that influence social acceptance and people's current perceptions. The newly developed injustice factor can be used to differentiate between objectively unjust risks and subjectively critically perceived risks. However, it also becomes clear that a sudden, major irreversible extent of damage caused by driverless driving in road traffic has not yet been recognised. The overall conclusion is that driverless driving is not fundamentally the solution in terms of the defined objectives. The mobility system's overarching capabilities with optimised integration and interconnectivity of different means of transport must be considered, taking into account the individual needs in the respective area. Reliability, spatial and temporal flexibility with short access routes as well as manageability and comprehensibility play an important role here. Driverless driving, as a possible component of the overall mobility to be designed, requires further critical consideration and control so that it can have a holistically positive impact. The added value of this process results from the resolution of the complexity of a technology in the management and control dilemma under the production of structured orientation knowledge. A comprehensive socio-technical understanding of the system under consideration is achieved, which enables a realistic and holistic view of the capabilities and risks of the technology in a situational analysis. The chosen approach motivates the linking of different methods that place people and their individual needs at the centre of the sustainable development of technology.