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Item type:Publication, Access status: without files , Statistical estimation of uncertainties associated with ship operations in fresh water ice(International Society of Ocean and Polar Engineers (ISOPE), 2018-06); ; ; ; Operational Time Window (OTW) and its confidence level are important for vessels operating in ice covered waters. This can be evaluated by quantifying all contributing factors in terms of their influence along with respective associated uncertainties. For a case study involving a barge operating in Lake Mälaren, Sweden, five criteria are evaluated, and associated uncertainties are quantified using Variation Mode and Effect Analysis (VMEA) to give individual contribution towards overall uncertainty. Ship resistance due to ice and ice loads dominated over other criteria with highest contributions to uncertainty at 28% and 72% respectively.Publicationtype: Conference Paper102